FSU football predictions: How'd I do?

You may remember that back in July I wrote a post predicting how FSU's football season would go. Well, with the bowl game tonight I think it's high time I revisit those predictions and see how I did in the prognostication department.

Anticipated Final Regular Season Record: 9-3
Actual Final Regular Season Record: 9-3

Well howsabout that!

Predicted Wins: Samford, BYU, Wake, Virginia, Boston College, N.C. State, Maryland
We beat everyone on this list except N.C. State. We also beat Miami and Florida.

Predicted Losses: Oklahoma, Florida
We lost to Oklahoma, did not lose to Florida. We also lost to N.C. State and North Carolina, and to Virginia Tech in the ACC title game. We should not have lost to N.C. State or North Carolina, both resulted from last second disasters, but that's a story for another day.

Predicted Could Go Either Way (i.e. we'll win at least one and lose at least one, I just can't predict which ones): Clemson, Miami, UNC
We beat Miami and Clemson, lost to UNC. I should have put Florida in this category, in retrospect.

Back in July, I wrote this:

However, I do think we have a very good shot for the first time in awhile of beating Florida, though I couldn't in good conscience move it into the tossup category. But I won't be shocked at all if it happens.

Shows what I know. We killed Florida, absolutely annihilated them, and I was there to watch it all. I, like many others, did not realize exactly how bad that team would be with a new QB and a lousy Offensive Coordinator.

I also wrote this back in July:

Miami could be great this year or mediocre, and it is really too early to tell. I think we will probably lose to them because the game is in Miami, but we do always play them pretty tough and close, so I have to leave that one a tossup.

Hahaha! Actually to say Miami was mediocre would be generous. That game was probably our best overall game of the season, in terms of every aspect of the team clicking at the right times. We beat them by four touchdowns, in Miami. It was GLORIOUS.

I predicted that Christian Ponder would be a top 5 NFL draft pick, and that was glaringly wrong. Ponder will be drafted, but probably not until after the first day of the draft. He was too injured for much of this year to be as effective as he was last year.

I also said this:

[E]ven with the improvement of a defense-heavy recruiting class and all new defensive coaching, our defense is likely to just go from terrible to mediocre.

For awhile there, it looked like we were going to have a top 25 defense, something simply unfathomable back when I wrote these predictions. However, a few tough games at the end and some serious injury issues on the D-line caused us to fall back into the 60th range. Still, to take a defense ranked 100th out of 120 teams last year and bring them up into the top half of defenses nationally, that was a great turnaround for first year Defensive Coordinator Mark Stoops.

I said this about whether FSU would win the ACC:

We certainly can. If we lose only one ACC game, as I anticipate (and especially if it's to Miami or UNC who are not in our division), then we should at minimum make the title game. Many are predicting BC will win our division because they play UVA and Duke--the two patsies of the league--but we will probably beat BC and if we each only have one conference loss then the head to head game will be the tiebreaker. Having said that, whoever comes out of the other division--Va Tech, Miami, Ga Tech, or UNC--is going to be a pretty tough team to beat in the conference championship game. FSU can do it, but I can't predict that it will happen this year.

We made the title game, and that was fantastic for Jimbo Fisher's first year. (Granted, we needed some help to get there since 2 of our 3 losses were to ACC teams.) But I was pretty sure we would play Va Tech in the title game, and pretty sure we would lose to them. And I was right.

And finally, I said this:

I am also so incredibly ready for the modern era of football as ushered in by Jimbo Fisher to finally get here. I am ready to start kicking Florida's ass again. I am ready to do the warchant and the tomahawk chop and to scream with joy for my team, rather than scaring small children with my stream of angry profanities (true story). I do not fear change, I embrace it. This is Jimbo's team now.

I got to do all of these things this year, and it was better than I could possibly have imagined. Jimbo Fisher's first year as head coach has been a great triumph, and we have an incredibly bright future ahead. Many are projecting FSU to have the top recruiting class in the country this year, after the No. 4 or No. 6 (depending on who you ask) class last year. We have a quarterback taking over the reigns next year who has already started 6 games as an underclassman, with a 4-2 record (losses coming to Florida last year and Va Tech this year.) E.J. Manuel could very well be the second coming of Charlie Ward, and our defense will only continue to improve. Very, very good things are coming our way.

However, I don't think we will beat South Carolina tonight. And that's OK.