Ridiculously Early FSU Football Predictions
Although I love baseball, this is around about the time when I start thinking about Labor Day weekend plans, and thus also find myself looking forward with eager anticipation to the start of the college football season. Because there is really nothing to do but wait, and because I have been devouring all the news I can find in the off-season about the upcoming inaugural season of the Jimbo Fisher Era at Florida State, I figured I would make some random prognostications.
Anticipated Final Regular Season Record: 9-3
Wins: Samford, BYU, Wake, Virginia, Boston College, N.C. State, Maryland
Losses: Oklahoma, Florida
Could Go Either Way (i.e. we'll win at least one and lose at least one, I just can't predict which ones): Clemson, Miami, UNC
We are absolutely, positively, 100% going to lose to Oklahoma. Anyone who thinks otherwise is dreaming. However, I do think we have a very good shot for the first time in awhile of beating Florida, though I couldn't in good conscience move it into the tossup category. But I won't be shocked at all if it happens. UNC would've been a much tougher game for us before Marvin Austin and possibly some other players got into a little agent trouble, so I feel much better about our chances of beating them but still couldn't call it a sure win yet. Similarly, a week ago I would've felt strongly about our chances against Clemson but that was when I assumed they'd have a freshman QB and not the very good Kyle Parker, who turned down a million dollar baseball signing bonus to return. So now Clemson could very easily beat us. Miami could be great this year or mediocre, and it is really too early to tell. I think we will probably lose to them because the game is in Miami, but we do always play them pretty tough and close, so I have to leave that one a tossup.
Will Christian Ponder win the Heisman? No, but he will put up the numbers that will make him a top 5 NFL draft pick. If he'd have a better defense behind him, he would be a top 3 Heisman candidate, but even with the improvement of a defense-heavy recruiting class and all new defensive coaching, our defense is likely to just go from terrible to mediocre. Not enough to propel us to the top 10, which is where Ponder would need to be in order to have a chance at the statue. He might get an invite to NYC, though, depending on how the other top candidates fare.
Which games am I attending? Right now I have hotel rooms booked for BYU, UNC and UF. I may throw Clemson in there too, depending on how the team is doing and whether I can get a hotel for that weekend. (Also, if my big trial goes in November I may have to cancel any hope of attending the UNC or Clemson games.) I also plan to actually tailgate this year if I can figure out where FSU fans tailgate. You UGA folks may find this strange, but we are not a big tailgating school. Most people roll up to the stadium right before the game starts, and the parking situation is sort of sporadic and spread out so there aren't a lot of places with great tailgate setups (although there are some.) However, we can walk around with open containers of alcohol, so in the past I have just shotgunned 2 or 3 beers on the walk from car to stadium (and then spent the game drunkenly feeling the liquid sloshing in my stomach while needing to pee. Fun!) But I like the tailgate concept, and would love to find a way to add it to my football experience. I think staying in Tallahassee, unlike my arrangements in years past, will probably help with that somewhat.
Will FSU win the ACC? We certainly can. If we lose only one ACC game, as I anticipate (and especially if it's to Miami or UNC who are not in our division), then we should at minimum make the title game. Many are predicting BC will win our division because they play UVA and Duke--the two patsies of the league--but we will probably beat BC and if we each only have one conference loss then the head to head game will be the tiebreaker. Having said that, whoever comes out of the other division--Va Tech, Miami, Ga Tech, or UNC--is going to be a pretty tough team to beat in the conference championship game. FSU can do it, but I can't predict that it will happen this year. I would love it if we somehow made it back to a BCS game, though.
Will I miss Bobby Bowden? Probably. I was a vocal critic who wanted him out years ago, but I also am eternally grateful to him for making FSU into a spectacular dynasty and putting us on the college football map. I will think of him fondly every time I walk by the statue outside Bobby Bowden field. But I am also so incredibly ready for the modern era of football as ushered in by Jimbo Fisher to finally get here. I am ready to start kicking Florida's ass again. I am ready to do the warchant and the tomahawk chop and to scream with joy for my team, rather than scaring small children with my stream of angry profanities (true story). I do not fear change, I embrace it. This is Jimbo's team now.
Do I regret renewing my season tickets? Not. For. A. Second. Hopefully I'll have made the jump in priority level by the time we have returned to our former glory! I am committed. Speaking of...
Anticipated Final Regular Season Record: 9-3
Wins: Samford, BYU, Wake, Virginia, Boston College, N.C. State, Maryland
Losses: Oklahoma, Florida
Could Go Either Way (i.e. we'll win at least one and lose at least one, I just can't predict which ones): Clemson, Miami, UNC
We are absolutely, positively, 100% going to lose to Oklahoma. Anyone who thinks otherwise is dreaming. However, I do think we have a very good shot for the first time in awhile of beating Florida, though I couldn't in good conscience move it into the tossup category. But I won't be shocked at all if it happens. UNC would've been a much tougher game for us before Marvin Austin and possibly some other players got into a little agent trouble, so I feel much better about our chances of beating them but still couldn't call it a sure win yet. Similarly, a week ago I would've felt strongly about our chances against Clemson but that was when I assumed they'd have a freshman QB and not the very good Kyle Parker, who turned down a million dollar baseball signing bonus to return. So now Clemson could very easily beat us. Miami could be great this year or mediocre, and it is really too early to tell. I think we will probably lose to them because the game is in Miami, but we do always play them pretty tough and close, so I have to leave that one a tossup.
Will Christian Ponder win the Heisman? No, but he will put up the numbers that will make him a top 5 NFL draft pick. If he'd have a better defense behind him, he would be a top 3 Heisman candidate, but even with the improvement of a defense-heavy recruiting class and all new defensive coaching, our defense is likely to just go from terrible to mediocre. Not enough to propel us to the top 10, which is where Ponder would need to be in order to have a chance at the statue. He might get an invite to NYC, though, depending on how the other top candidates fare.
Which games am I attending? Right now I have hotel rooms booked for BYU, UNC and UF. I may throw Clemson in there too, depending on how the team is doing and whether I can get a hotel for that weekend. (Also, if my big trial goes in November I may have to cancel any hope of attending the UNC or Clemson games.) I also plan to actually tailgate this year if I can figure out where FSU fans tailgate. You UGA folks may find this strange, but we are not a big tailgating school. Most people roll up to the stadium right before the game starts, and the parking situation is sort of sporadic and spread out so there aren't a lot of places with great tailgate setups (although there are some.) However, we can walk around with open containers of alcohol, so in the past I have just shotgunned 2 or 3 beers on the walk from car to stadium (and then spent the game drunkenly feeling the liquid sloshing in my stomach while needing to pee. Fun!) But I like the tailgate concept, and would love to find a way to add it to my football experience. I think staying in Tallahassee, unlike my arrangements in years past, will probably help with that somewhat.
Will FSU win the ACC? We certainly can. If we lose only one ACC game, as I anticipate (and especially if it's to Miami or UNC who are not in our division), then we should at minimum make the title game. Many are predicting BC will win our division because they play UVA and Duke--the two patsies of the league--but we will probably beat BC and if we each only have one conference loss then the head to head game will be the tiebreaker. Having said that, whoever comes out of the other division--Va Tech, Miami, Ga Tech, or UNC--is going to be a pretty tough team to beat in the conference championship game. FSU can do it, but I can't predict that it will happen this year. I would love it if we somehow made it back to a BCS game, though.
Will I miss Bobby Bowden? Probably. I was a vocal critic who wanted him out years ago, but I also am eternally grateful to him for making FSU into a spectacular dynasty and putting us on the college football map. I will think of him fondly every time I walk by the statue outside Bobby Bowden field. But I am also so incredibly ready for the modern era of football as ushered in by Jimbo Fisher to finally get here. I am ready to start kicking Florida's ass again. I am ready to do the warchant and the tomahawk chop and to scream with joy for my team, rather than scaring small children with my stream of angry profanities (true story). I do not fear change, I embrace it. This is Jimbo's team now.
Do I regret renewing my season tickets? Not. For. A. Second. Hopefully I'll have made the jump in priority level by the time we have returned to our former glory! I am committed. Speaking of...
6 comments:
If the quarterback had a better defense behind him....
But anyway. Let the season begin.
Come on, you know exactly what I meant. The GA Tech game last year was a perfect example. Doesn't matter if you put up 49 points if the defense following you onto the field after every drive gives up 50.
And please, let's not rehash the stupid arguments last year wherein you repeatedly refused to accept that we had one of the worst defenses in the country. I think the 2009 season stats bear that out pretty definitively.
I did not repeatedly refuse to accept the defense had culpability in the season. In fact on November 5th, I said, "Yes. The defense is horrible. No excusing it."
What I repeatedly said was that even though the defense was horrible the offense bore some of the blame. Including St. Christian.
I hope Christian has a spectacular season. I believe he will be the Heisman front runner.
I also hope the defense will be dramatically improved and believe it will be far beyond mediocre.
Mostly because it will likely put us in the top ten and the ACC championship game. But also, because it might finally end them being the convenient scapegoat.
You know exactly what I am talking about. Earlier in the season last year we had several arguments about the defense. By November, it was impossible to ignore.
Nigel Carr, who would've been our starting OLB, is probably off the team after Sunday's arrest on 5 felony charges, so I think hoping for improvement to anything more than mediocre for this year's defense is probably a bit of a pipe dream. (I'd love it, but I'm not counting on it.) Still, jumping from ranking in the 100s to ranking in the 60s or 70s would be an amazing accomplishment in just one season.
I'm pretty sure our primary arguments early in the season were around the defensive gem against BYU and the nightmare defensive collapse against USF. I stand by what I said about those games.
There were more (starting with Miami), but it's an old dumb argument so there's no point in digging them all up. Which was my point to begin with...why talk about years past? It's over and done now. Hopefully we will be better.
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