The Awakening

If you were an English major or a literature buff like me, you almost certainly read Kate Chopin's "The Awakening" sometime in high school or college. For those of you who never read it, the story centers upon Edna Pontellier, a bored aristocratic wife and mother who suddenly beigns contemplating a life on her own without family obligations, a life filled with art and poetry and a young lover, but suddenly realizes her conscience won't let her leave certain obligations to those she loves behind. As she discovers that she cannot escape her old life she opts instead to drown--literally--in the Gulf of Mexico.

It has long been one of my favorites, and I remember being so caught up in the self-discovery of the heroine that I was absolutely devastated when she realizes she cannot get away, and heartbroken but understanding at her final decision. On every trip to New Orleans that I've taken, I've thought about driving down to Grand Isle, where much of the story takes place. It is one of those stories that spoke to me in a way that few do and left an indelible mark forever.

Strangely, this post is really about politics. I think I and many others like me have been so disillusioned with politics for so long that we simply did not believe it possible that we could be hopeful about anything ever again. We did not believe we could be inspired, and we certainly did not believe we could be caught up in a movement that could change the world. And yet, many of us experienced all of those things for the first time in ages if ever, when we embraced the possibility that Obama's candidacy presented to us. Our hopeful nature, the part of us that desperately wants to change our country for the better, was let out of its cold cynical cage and allowed to at least dream wildly about the possibilities of a transformative presidency. Yes, to those who weren't part of the movement, who didn't have the epiphany, who didn't drink the Kool-Aid, we looked like members of a cult. There were worries we were putting too much credit onto someone who had done little to deserve the projection of all our hopes and dreams and inspirations. But once we gave in to that part of our hearts that wanted something to believe in so desperately, we didn't care what the naysayers said.

Today the question asked is what will happen to us if we find out, much like Edna did, that our awakening is short-lived. Are we too emotionally invested in our candidate to shift grears if they don't win and support someone else instead? Will we be angry at the other candidate if they prevail in the primary? Will we lose our resolve to put a Democrat in the White House if it's not our Democrat?

I can only speak for myself. Much like Edna, if I had this wonderful new hope dashed on the rocks by an ugly primary that I think has featured some really awful tactics from his opponent, I have no doubt that a part of me would be crushed. I wouldn't want to go back to being cynical and depressed and to assuming that dreaming about change is useless because it can't happen. I've lived that life, and it sucks. But I don't see myself suddenly voting for a Republican because of that depression. Would I still vote for the other candidate as nominee? Probably. Would I be inspired to canvass, raise and give, money, phone bank, etc.? Maybe not, or at least not as much as I would be if Obama wins the nomination. It isn't that I will have lingering ill will towards Hillary Clinton, but rather that I'll just have lost the will to fight that hard for something I simply don't believe in as much.

I suspect that for most people, the answer would be the same. Now do I think that means trouble in the general? No. The beauty of such a close split among Democrats is that we know at least half of the voters in the party will be thrilled with their candidate, energized, and ready to kick ass in the general. If half of the electorate is less thrilled but still willing to turn out and vote, my guess is that's probably enough. There are, however, 3 areas in which I think a Clinton victory in particular could lead to potential problems in the general election:

1. Turnout of young voters--they're coming out in droves for Obama but are notoriously finicky about turnout in nearly every other election. If their chosen candidate doesn't win, my hunch is they go back to playing Wii or getting high and don't have such an incentive to be part of the process.

2. Turnout of African American voters--I think there is still some lingering ill will about this primary contest within this community, and while I hope that Clinton could consolidate them behind her if she had to, I think we might see lower turnout in this group as well if they don't have the motivating factor of potentially putting the first black President in the White House.

3. Independents--I do believe that if Hillary Clinton is the nominee, many of the independents who supported Obama will potentially vote for McCain instead. This is probably the most critical problem that a Clinton candidacy would create--while Obama and McCain would divvy up independents pretty evenly, I think Clinton would take a far smaller portion were she the Democratic nominee. In a country where independents are the biggest voting bloc, that's a big issue.

I think we should be focused on those three issues much more so than this talk about breathless culty Obama worshippers not supporting Clinton in the general, or Clinton fans being so angry about how Obama won that they just don't vote. The rank and file Democrats will still vote, even if their hearts are broken about not having their candidate on the ballot.