Tuesday, December 18, 2007

Is Obama the 2008 version of McCain in 2000?

Andrew Sullivan received an email from a reader that included this passage that really struck me:

Obama, it seems, is a bit like Regan, in that he actually has the possibility of stealing all of those moderate republicans like my Dad to a democratic ticket. Now if the Democrats would just realize the huge opportunity they’ve got to destroy the republicans next fall.

I don't know that I get the Reagan comparison, perhaps because I was really too young in the Reagan years to appreciate how he appealed across the party spectrum politically. But it immediately made me think of John McCain in 2000. How many Democrats crossed over to vote in Republican primaries so that they could pull the lever for McCain? (This one did.) How many Democrats gave him money and supported his candidacy even though they disagreed with him pretty fundamentally on some major issues? (Again, I know I did.) How many people were persuaded not by ideology but by the belief that what we need right now isn't someone overproduced, focus-grouped and special interest driven, but someone smart enough and idealistic enough to be a real person who will tackle problems in the way they actually believe is best?

I've seen plenty of anecdotal evidence of Republicans being very worried about an Obama candidacy. In fact, at a recent birthday party I heard one Republican operative who shall remain nameless say to another Republican operative, "if that guy gets the nomination, we're screwed." Democrats felt the same way in 2000 about McCain, and the Republicans stupidly didn't nominate him in favor of Ye Olde Village Idiot.

I'll be very interested to see what sort of crossover effect there is in states that still have open primaries. Faced with a slew of unfortunate choices on the R side of the ballot, I have to believe a fair number of Rs will wince and vote D in the primary with the hope of at least putting the most palatable choice on their general election ballot. But so far we aren't hearing much about the potential for crossover votes to make an impact. Maybe it's too early, or maybe too many states changed the rules for their primary in the wake of all the crossover voting in 2000. But at some point, I think it's going to matter even if it may not be enough to help Obama win the election.

1 comment:

Aerodad said...

Looking for the ABH voters and moderate Republicans would be wise, but doesn't seem to factor into the noodles of people who gleefully go to holiday and birthday parties for an honoree in absentia (kinda like baby Jesus at Christmas). My mother emailed me two days ago to inform me that her new voter registration card came in the mail, and she's voting D now for the first time in her Republican life, and I've got a few other R's teetering over the brink. (For Joe, not Barack -- my family is less concerned with "fresh start" than "don't fuck up Iraq.")