Say wha?!

I don't know what kind of crack they're smoking over here at HRC campaign headquarters, perhaps the overconfident kind. Hillary Clinton senior strategist Michael Penn apparently predicted in a breakfast meeting with reporters this morning that they expect 24% of Republican women voters to have an "emotional" response to the prospect of a woman in the White House that will be so strong they will cross over and vote for Hillary Clinton if she is the Democratic nominee.

*picture violent whiplash-inducing doubletake of the head*

I know plenty of Republican and Independent women voters, in addition to a hell of a lot of Democrats. And you know, I can't think of a single one of them who are considering crossing party lines to vote for Hillary. Meanwhile, I know of at least three women who are independents or moderate Democrats who are seriously considering either voting for the Republican nominee or not voting at all if Hillary Clinton is their other option. Of course that's just anecdotal evidence from one woman's social circle, but I find it absolutely astounding that HRC's folks think one quarter of Republican women would defect solely on the basis of supporting their gender. Black Republican candidates don't get that level of crossover support by virtue of their race, not even close to it. So what is the basis for believing that Republican women will vote their gender in such numbers?

Certainly to many people, the prospect of a female president is exciting and greatly hoped for. But if the Clinton campaign is banking on that level of support, I've gotta feel like it's because something else is going on. Are they worrying about a depressed Democratic electorate or overall electorate due to displeasure with Congress and its new leadership? Are they worried that HRC is a polarizing force who will cause a lot of voters to stay at home if their choices are both unsupportable in their minds? Or are they just assuming something unfortunate about women voters? It certainly tweaked my radar to hear a male political consultant talk about women voters having an "emotional element" to their voting resulting in them abandoning their long-held principles just to vote for a fellow possessor of a vagina.

To be sure, there will be some crossover and Hillary Clinton is likely to enjoy a somewhat higher percentage of female votes than a male candidate would. Nobody is disputing that. But I think if any emotional reaction is going to play into Republican women voters' decision, it's probably one that the HRC campaign doesn't want to acknowledge: the visceral negative one that she still evokes in a great many people, especially women, who find her too ambitious, too shrill, too willing to overlook and cover up her husband's personal dramas, and too...Hillary. That's got to account for something as well.